Economic growth Scenarios for 2025 suggested

Representatives from the government, the National Assembly (NA), and key ministries came together at the 17th Vietnam Economic Scenarios Forum, held recently by Vietnam Economic Times / VnEconomy, to recognize that 2024 was a year with more difficulties than opportunities and to acknowledge that the challenges will continue. The global landscape, characterized by geopolitical tensions, economic instability, and the lingering effects of the pandemic, has placed immense pressure on Vietnam’s economy. But thanks to decisive leadership, timely policies, and the unwavering determination of the political system, businesses, and the population, Vietnam managed to navigate all challenges throughout the year and post impressive results to set the stage for a future of strong, sustainable growth.

2024: Challenges outweigh opportunities

The year just passed was marked by a host of global challenges. The situation became increasingly complex, driven not only by security and political issues but also by escalating conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East along with intensifying strategic competition on a global scale.

On the economic front, major disruptions, such as the breakdown of global supply chains, caused significant fluctuations in the price of essential goods. Disruptions in transportation and logistics also led to a prolonged increase in shipping costs, adding financial pressure on businesses.

At the same time, inflation continued to be a significant concern, especially in developed economies. Prolonged interest rate hikes by central banks to combat inflation placed substantial pressure on economic growth. In addition, global trade and investment declined, economic recovery remained slow and fragile, and exchange rates and interest rates continued to fluctuate unpredictably.

These global challenges forced countries, including Vietnam, to exert significant effort in overcoming the obstacles. However, as Deputy Prime Minister Ho Duc Phoc highlighted in his opening remarks at the Forum, despite the difficulties, Vietnam’s economic performance in 2024 exhibited a number of positive and noteworthy achievements.

In particular, for the first time since 2016, Vietnam successfully met all 15 of its economic and social targets. GDP growth stood at an impressive 7.09 per cent, reaching $476.3 billion, ranking it 33rd globally, up two spots from 2023. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3.63 per cent compared to 2023, under the NA’s target of 4 per cent. “In particular, trade turnover was approximately $800 billion, with a record trade surplus of $24 billion,” the Deputy Prime Minister emphasized.

In regard to the State budget, total revenue in 2024 is estimated to have reached VND2,025 trillion ($79 billion), 19.1 per cent higher than the forecast and up 15.5 per cent compared to 2023. “This marks the fourth consecutive year Vietnam has exceeded its budget targets, underscoring the robustness of its financial management,” Deputy Prime Minister Phoc noted. “The government continued to roll out measures to support businesses, including tax, fee, and charge reductions totaling VND800 trillion ($32 billion).”

Additionally, the poverty rate fell by 1 per cent last year, reducing the national rate to 1.93 per cent. Meanwhile, the budget deficit was kept under 4 per cent of GDP, ensuring fiscal sustainability.

Regarding infrastructure development, Deputy Prime Minister Phoc pointed to a significant milestone in 2024, with the completion of 2,021 km of expressways around the country. Vietnam aims to total 3,000 km by the end of this year and 5,000 km by 2030. “Major projects such as the North-South high-speed railway, inter-regional railways, and modern ports and airports are progressing well, creating major opportunities for sustainable development while enhancing regional connectivity.”

Associate Professor Nguyen Hong Son, Deputy Head of the Central Economic Commission, told the Forum that Vietnam’s macro-economy remained stable in 2024, inflation was effectively controlled, and key economic balances were maintained, laying a solid foundation for long-term growth.

Another notable achievement was Vietnam’s FDI inflows, with registered capital of $38.2 billion, or 97 per cent of the 2023 figure. FDI disbursement, meanwhile, increased 9.4 per cent from 2023 to $25.35 billion, marking the highest rate on record. Its performance put Vietnam among the top 15 developing countries globally in FDI attraction in 2024.

According to Mr. Son, these successes reflect not only the strong commitment of the central government but also the collective efforts of localities, businesses, and individuals. Such achievements are a testament to the value of bold thinking, confidence, decisiveness, setting ambitious goals, and persevering to achieve them. “These are crucial results that create a solid foundation for us to build on in 2025,” he said.

2025: Stronger determination, greater breakthroughs

2025 holds great significance in Vietnam’s ongoing process of renewal and development, marking the final year for achieving goals outlined in the Resolution of the 13th National Party Congress as well as a year of Party congresses at all levels, which will lead to the 14th National Party Congress, heralding a “New era - The era of the nation’s rise”.

“In particular, 2025 is seen as a pivotal year for acceleration, breakthroughs, and laying a strong foundation for high economic growth that will be sustained over the next five to ten years,” he went on. “The government is targeting a minimum growth rate of 8 per cent, with aspirations for double-digit growth.”

Global trends suggest that 2025 will bring continued profound changes and shifts. Several long-term structural challenges in the global economy are expected to grow even more complex. In this environment, 2025 must be seen as a critical turning point. The strategy for shaping Vietnam’s economy in 2025 needs to focus not only on achieving strong growth during the year but also on building a solid foundation for continued, sustainable growth in the years that follow.

With ambitious goals set for 2025, Deputy Prime Minister Phoc emphasized that the government is committed to implementing three strategic breakthroughs help Vietnam navigate the challenges and seize the opportunities in the face of a rapidly-changing global economy.

The first breakthrough is improvements to institutions and legal frameworks. Important laws such as the Law on Public Investment, the Law on Planning, the Law on Securities, and the Law on Taxation were passed in 2024. Moving forward, the government will continue strengthening legal reforms to create a robust legal foundation for growth.

The second breakthrough focuses on the development of human resources, particularly high-quality talent. The government aims to prioritize human resources development in leadership and management roles, as well as in key sectors, through substantial improvements, enhanced research, and technology transfer, alongside a strong push for scientific and technological development.

The third breakthrough is in infrastructure development. The government plans to allocate VND800 trillion ($32 billion) for public investment in 2025, targeting major projects such as expressways, key airports like the Long Thanh International Airport in southern Dong Nai province, and the North-South high-speed railway. Energy infrastructure will also receive focused attention, with investments in nucl