As of the end of September, customer deposit balances at 32 leading securities companies had reached nearly VND67 trillion ($2.69 billion), down by more than VND3 trillion ($120 million) compared to the end of the second quarter. This shows that the amount of money withdrawn from the stock market is not significant and individual investors still consider securities an attractive investment channel compared to other channels such as gold, virtual currencies, bank savings, and real estate.
Deputy Minister of Finance Nguyen Duc Chi has said that the State Securities Commission (SSC) is reviewing the provisions of the Law on Securities and guiding documents in order to address the inadequacies and problems. The Ministry of Finance (MoF) will continue to complete the strategy for the development of the stock market to 2030, for submission to the government for approval, which aims to develop the market sustainably and increase the application of technology in management and administration.
Many securities investors are concerned with the stock market being under a lot of external risk pressure, as it is now. However, analysts have pointed out many advantages in the country’s stock market, such as low price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios and a higher return on equity (ROE) in the VN-Index than in the region.
The positive long-term outlook for Vietnam’s stock market has begun to show signs of triggering cash flows from actively disbursing funds. According to SSI Research, in August, cash flows from funds were more active and more evenly disbursed, with net buying of VND260 billion ($11 million). The number of funds actively net buying increased, while the level of net withdrawal by some funds has fallen gradually.
The stock market fell significantly in the second quarter of this year. Kis Securities believes that profits at securities companies in the closing months will be equal or slightly down year-on-year. It also touched on three factors affecting the securities industry from now to the end of 2022: the implementation of the KRX system, the redistribution of corporate bonds, and uncertainties over an upgrade to the local stock market.
After three consecutive months of net entry into Vietnam’s stock market, capital flows from exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and active funds reversed to net withdrawal in July. According to SSI Research, a positive long-term outlook for Vietnamese securities could trigger cash flows from actively disbursing funds. ETF capital flows can also still maintain their attractiveness.
According to VnDirect, profits of large-cap and small-cap stocks increased 25 per cent and 7.9 per cent, respectively, in the second quarter of this year. Profits in the financial services group fell 100.7 per cent, primarily due to the stock market tumbling over the past few months, a sharp fall in brokerage and proprietary trading, and margin lending factors.
ACBS Securities has forecast that under the most optimistic scenario, the VN-Index moves into a range of 1,800-1,900 points by the end of 2022, up 44.5 per cent since May 31. Even in the most pessimistic scenario, with uncertainty clouding the global market, the stock market could still be around 1,450 points by the end of the year.
Thanks to large volumes of cash going into the stock market and a record number of new accounts being opened, securities companies posted a successful 2021. Many reported record profits. Of note, Agriseco’s after-tax profit increased four-fold compared to 2020 and more than double the figure posted by BVSC.
