Vietnam’s textile and garment export turnover reached $31.3 billion in the first eight months of 2022, up 16.4 per cent year-on-year. However, according to SSI Research, the picture in the fourth quarter is not too bright, because the number of orders will be 25-50 per cent lower than in the second quarter, equivalent to a 15-20 per cent fall in revenue year-on-year. At the same time, the sales outlook is also bleak, as the USD/VND exchange rate is forecast to continue to decline in the second half of the year.

The Viet Dragon Securities Company (VDSC) believes the USD/VND exchange rate is under considerable short-term pressure to increase but this pressure will ease by the end of the year. It forecasts a 2-2.5 per cent depreciation for the year as a whole.

Rising foreign remittances in recent times have greatly helped the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV)’s management over exchange rates. But as the USD is becoming stronger while remittances only help “contain” the USD/VND exchange rate in the short term, KB Securities Vietnam has forecast that the rate may increase 0.5-1 per cent in 2022.