According to data from the General Department of Vietnam Customs, Vietnam imported 886,000 tons of hot-rolled coil in June alone, which is 151 per cent of domestic production, with those from China making up 77 per cent.
Steel enterprises in Vietnam have faced many difficulties in the past but are expected to rebound in the fourth quarter as steel demand increases as construction works accelerate, the recovery in China boosting global steel demand in 2023, and EU steel buyers seeking cheaper steel in Asia, including in Vietnam. Iron and steel continued to be among of the top 10 items in terms of export value in Vietnam in the second half of September.
The Vietnam Steel Association (VSA) has reported that steel production and consumption in the first nine months of this year continued to decline, by 5.8 per cent and 1.6 per cent, respectively, over the same period of 2021. The steel sector is forecast to recover in the fourth quarter of this year, which is when steel demand usually increases as construction projects pick up the pace.
Amid a weakening global economy, iron and steel were no longer on the list of Vietnam’s export items exceeding $10 billion in value in August. But it’s not all doom and gloom. Steel exports to the EU and the US have both increased sharply, by 18.1 per cent and 12.9 per cent, respectively, in the past seven months.
Data from the General Department of Vietnam Customs shows that iron and steel exports posted the highest growth in the second half of July, rising 62.8 per cent. Such exports fell in the first half of the month, by 44 per cent compared to the second half of June.
A number of securities companies believe that now is the best time to accumulate steel stocks, as current valuations are attractive. At the same time, revenue and profit margins at steel enterprises will improve in the second half of this year thanks to a range of positive factors, in particular construction steel demand being expected to recover shortly and public investment disbursement accelerating to the end of the year.
The price of domestic construction steel has recently been cut by enterprises by between VND50 and VND310 per kilo. Thus, from June 19 to June 27, construction steel saw prices cut twice and from May 11 to June 27 seven times. The steel price is now VND15,960 - 17,760 ($0.68 - 0.76) per kilo.
Electricity shortages in China have led to a decline in the supply of iron, steel, and cement, opening up export opportunities for Vietnamese firms. The opportunity will be short-term, however, as China is likely to soon restore supply.
The Ministry of Finance (MoF) has proposed that the export tax on steel billets be increased and the preferential import tax (MFN) on certain iron and steel products be reduced.
