According to Mr. Petri Deryng, Founder of Finland’s PYN Fund Management Ltd and Portfolio Manager of the PYN Elite Fund, Vietnam’s stock market, which is the worst in Southeast Asia in terms of profitability, could bottom out this week or next. Interest rates, however, may peak in the country in early 2023. He believes that the situation will calm down in the months to come, thanks to directions, inspections, and close supervision from authorities.
Valuations on stocks in the VN30 is in a reasonable range and some have attractive prices. According to Agriseco Research, seven stocks with potential are BVH, HDB, GAS, HPG, KDH, SAB, and TPB.
Foreign investors posted an unexpected net withdrawal in the first session of the new month on September 5. There remain many stocks going against the trend and attracting strong capital inflows, however, such as steel and chemical fertilizer.
Analysts believe that positive points in the revised Law on the Insurance Business include the removal of limits on investment in stocks and corporate bonds and the granting of permission to invest in trust funds. The revised law also allows foreign investors to own up to 100 per cent of charter capital in insurance or reinsurance companies.
Many analysts believe that, in the short term, the electricity industry will benefit as public investment accelerates. Banks, securities, and real estate also have potential, because these groups are present in every up and down.
Commodity prices have been gradually cooling since the beginning of June, signaling a reversal after the strong increases seen over the past two years. According to Agriseco’s assessment, there will be three main groups of beneficiaries from this reversal: plastics, cement, and cattle.
According to Ms. Nguyen Thi Phuong Lam, Chief Analytics Officer at RongViet Securities Corporation, public investment will still be promoted this year, with smart transportation stocks joining infrastructure stocks as worthy of consideration. In terms of post-pandemic economic recovery, stocks involved with public utilities, essential consumer groups, and industrial park real estate are likely to fare well.
According to Mr. Trinh Hoang Giang, CEO of HSC Securities, Vietnam’s stock market has fallen about 20 per cent and is likely to go down further, but the country’s economy is solid, with GDP growth forecast at 6-7 per cent this year. Now is therefore a good time to buy stocks, he believes.
Yuanta Securities has forecast that during the portfolio restructuring period in the second quarter, two foreign funds with a size of nearly $1 billion - the FTSE ETF (exchange-traded fund) and the V.N.M ETF - will strongly buy four stocks: FTS, SHB, NLG, and VCG.
In an update on Vietnam’s stock market outlook, the Pyn Elite Fund said global stocks may go down in the future but Vietnamese stocks, based on current valuations, are extremely cheap. The Finnish fund also expects that Vietnamese stocks will not be overly affected by the conflict in Ukraine or any collapse in the Nasdaq, and forecast income growth of 19-29 per cent this year.