2021 GDP growth forecasts adjusted

GDP growth was -6.17 per cent year-on-year in the third quarter, far worse than the predicted -1 to -3 per cent and the steepest decline since 2000, when Vietnam first began announcing quarterly growth figures.

Many experts had predicted that third-quarter growth would indeed be in the negative. “But the 6.17 per cent fall was unexpected,” said Dr. Ho Quoc Tuan from Bristol University. “This is at the lower end of many forecast models, dragged down by a 9.28 per cent fall in the service sector.”

In regard to the closing months of the year, Mr. Nguyen Trung Hieu, Director of the System of National Accounts at the General Statistics Office (GSO), said that with a nine-month growth rate of just 1.42 per cent, achieving the growth target of 6 per cent set by the National Assembly and 6.5 per cent set by the government for the year as a whole is simply not feasible.

The GSO has therefore made two forecast scenarios for 2021 growth, of 2.5 per cent and 3 per cent. It and many experts believe the first figure is more likely.

In order to achieve the highest growth possible, in addition to solutions to remove difficulties facing the business community and to stimulate domestic consumption, experts have said that continued disease prevention and control remains the top priority.