Strong recovery tipped in 2024 economic forecasts

Vietnam’s economy has been forecast by many international organizations to develop strongly in 2024, with GDP growth ranging from 5-6.3 per cent.

Recently-released reports on the economic prospects for 2024 by many international financial organizations indicate that Vietnam’s economy will recover strongly this year after a year of resolutely overcoming the global economic headwinds.

The latest Economic Insight report for Southeast Asia, commissioned by the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales (ICAEW) and Oxford Economics, forecast that Vietnam’s growth is likely to nudge up to 5 per cent from an estimated 4.7 per cent in 2023. This would still be well below the pre-pandemic figure of 7 per cent. Despite below-trend growth in 2023 and 2024, Vietnam’s miracle growth story probably hasn’t ended yet, the report stated.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF), meanwhile, has forecast Vietnam’s 2024 growth at 5.8 per cent; double the global average and among the top 20 highest growth rates in the world.

The latest report from the Asian Development Bank (ADB) puts Vietnam’s 2024 growth at 6 per cent.

Meanwhile, the country’s growth is forecast to accelerate to 6.3 per cent in 2024 before reaching 7 per cent in 2025 in the latest projection from global credit ratings agency Fitch Ratings.

According to the World Bank (WB), Vietnam’s economy is likely to grow 5.5 per cent this year and 6 per cent next. It is expected to remain among the top global economies posting the highest growth.

According to international organizations, Vietnam’s economic growth outlook in 2024 and in the mid-term is positive due to the recovery of domestic consumption and goods trade, the acceleration of public investment, and increases in FDI.