VEPR provides 3 growth scenarios

The Vietnam Institute for Economic and Policy Research (VEPR) has forecast that Vietnam’s GDP growth may reach 6.2 per cent this year under a positive scenario, but in offering insights into the current state of the economic recovery process and assessing the global economic situation, it suggests that certain measures be implemented to restructure Vietnam’s economy.

There have been many positive signs from the numbers and predictions of the General Statistics Office (GSO), but VEPR believes Vietnam’s economic recovery process is somewhat slow compared to other countries. It said the economy will continue to face many challenges, such as risks from the pandemic as new variations emerge, inflation, and the Russia - Ukraine conflict contributing to a global economic slowdown.

A VEPR representative also expressed concern about the “Zero Covid” policy adopted in China and the difference in Vietnam’s economic stimulus policy compared to global trends effectively reducing the impact of these policies.

VEPR has proposed three scenarios for Vietnam’s economic growth in 2022. In the base scenario, growth will reach 5.7 per cent and in the positive scenario 6.2 per cent. However, if the circumstances are negative, it may only come in at 5.2 per cent.

Furthermore, VEPR suggests that proactive disease control, minimizing the impact of the pandemic, and protecting and supporting economic recovery need to be prioritized. It is especially necessary to accelerate the implementation of economic recovery and development solutions.

Another issue it noted is speeding up the implementation of measures to cut interest rates and offer support, but this should be closely associated with the strict monitoring and control of bad debts. Moreover, it suggested it is necessary to boost the restructuring of the economy in association with renovating the growth model based on innovation and improving the foundation of the digital economy.