Commerce University proposes two growth scenarios

Two growth scenarios for 2021 have been proposed in the Vietnam Annual Economic and Trade Report 2020 from the Vietnam University of Commerce. In the positive scenario, if Covid-19 is quickly brought under control and global economic growth recovers soon after, Vietnam’s GDP growth may reach 6.1 per cent this year and average CPI will be 4 per cent. In the second scenario, if the pandemic continues to linger and the speed of recovery is slow, US economic growth will be about 2.5 per cent. Vietnam’s growth will therefore only be about 5.5 per cent and average CPI will be 3.5 per cent. In terms of trade, the import and export of goods continues to face difficulties and Vietnam’s trade performance is forecast to be lower in 2021 than in 2020.