UOB maintains its forecast for Vietnam's GDP growth at 7 per cent in 2025

The Government News has quoted a newly-released economic report from Singapore-based United Overseas Bank (UOB) as reporting that UOB experts maintain their forecast for Vietnam's GDP growth at 7 per cent this year, emphasizing that the country’s GDP growth goal of at least 8 per cent is feasible.

The UOB report stated that Vietnam's trade surplus in 2024 was estimated to hit $23.9 billion, the second-highest level in history, only behind the record of $28.4 billion in 2023.

This also marks the ninth consecutive year that Vietnam has maintained a trade surplus, playing a crucial role in stabilizing the Dong (VND) exchange rate, according to UOB.

With a high level of openness, Vietnam's economy continues to strengthen its position in the region, with export value in 2024 accounting for approximately 90 per cent of GDP—the second highest in ASEAN, only behind Singapore (174 per cent) and surpassing Malaysia (69 per cent). This highlights the crucial role of trade as a key driver of growth of Vietnam's economy, the bank noted.

However, this high level of openness also makes Vietnam more vulnerable to fluctuations and conflicts in global trade, especially as U.S. President Donald Trump intensifies measures to reduce the trade deficit, it remarked.

The bank suggested that Vietnam should boost capital investment, especially from the public sector, not only to drive growth but also to mitigate risks when trade faces challenges.

Vietnam still has room to strengthen public investment, especially as the government aims for double-digit growth in the future, the bank highlighted.

With these factors, UOB maintains an optimistic yet cautious outlook on Vietnam's economic prospects. The GDP growth forecast for 2025 remains at 7 per cent, assuming first-quarter GDP reaches 7.1 per cent.

In 2026, the growth rate could rise to 7.4 per cent, supported by the government's measures to improve efficiency, said the UOB report.