UOB forecasts Vietnam's 2025 growth at 6%

Singapore-based United Overseas Bank (UOB) has maintained its forecast for Vietnam's economic growth at 6% in 2025 and 6.3% next year.

UOB lowered Vietnam's growth outlook for 2025 and 2026 across the board to factor in the sharp negative impact from reciprocal tariffs on global trade and investment flows.

For Vietnam, the bank slashed its growth forecast by 1% to 6% from before April.

Looking ahead, the next critical milestone will be July 9, when the 90-day pause on US tariffs is set to expire. According to news reports, Vietnam has been engaging the US in trade negotiations, with the second round of discussions held from May 19-22. The next round is set for the end of June.

Economic activities have picked up with the 90-day reprieve, with both exports and imports in April rising more than expected from a year earlier, at 20 and 23%, respectively. Exports to its largest market, the US, surged by 34% year-on-year, the fastest pace since January 2024.

UOB also forecast Vietnam’s GDP growth in the second and third quarter of this year at 6.1% and 5.8%, respectively.