CIEM: 2024 GDP growth forecast at 6.48%

The Central Institute for Economic Management (CIEM) has unveiled two economic scenarios for Vietnam this year with GDP growth of 6.13 per cent and 6.48 per cent.

This was included in its “Vietnam’s economy in 2023 and prospects for 2024” report, which was released at a conference on January 15.

Under the first scenario, Vietnam’s GDP is expected to increase by 6.13 per cent with average inflation at 3.94 per cent. Export growth will surge 4.02 per cent and the trade surplus is estimated at $5.64 billion.

Under the second scenario, growth is forecast to hit 6.48 per cent, inflation 3.72 per cent, export growth 5.19 per cent, and the trade surplus $6.26 billion.

The report emphasizes that Vietnam posted growth in the third and fourth quarters of 2023 with the recovery of the industry and construction sectors.

Real GDP growth in the third and fourth quarters exceeded potential, which demonstrates the positive impact of solutions to restore aggregate demand introduced over the second half of the year, the report said.

Addressing the conference, Ms. Tran Thi Hong Minh, Director of the CIEM, said Vietnam not only depended on fiscal and monetary solutions to boost economic growth last year but also created new growth drivers from reforming economic institutions.

These growth drivers came from new economic models, business environment reform, restructuring of the economy, and the completion of regional planning and connectivity mechanisms, she added.