HoREA forecasts continued hardship for property market in 2025

The real estate market in Ho Chi Minh City and across Vietnam is expected to remain under pressure throughout 2025, though experts anticipate a gradual easing of difficulties as the country enters a “pivotal year” of transition toward healthier and more sustainable growth, forecast to begin in the second half of 2026.

In a recent report, the Ho Chi Minh City Real Estate Association (HoREA) outlined five key factors currently impacting—and likely to continue affecting—the market:

First, the HCMC housing market continues to suffer from a lack of new projects, resulting in limited housing supply. Notably, since 2021, no new developments have included affordable commercial housing (priced below VND30 million or $1,150/sq.m), and social housing remains critically scarce.

Second, housing prices have risen steadily and remain at historically high levels. In 2024, high-end apartments reached VND90 million ($3,450) per sq.m, with an average price around VND9.7 billion ($371,800) per unit—far beyond the financial reach of most middle- and low-income urban residents. (HoREA notes these are initial prices at project approval, not final market rates.)

Third, among 220 projects in HCMC which had been entangled in legal and procedural delays,  some 77 (35%) have been resolved, while 143 remain under review.

Fourth, due to payment extensions under Decree 08/2023/ND-CP, approximately VND180 trillion (nearly $6.89 billion) in private corporate bonds will mature starting August 2025, placing significant pressure on issuing companies to meet their obligations.

Fifth, the implementation of new laws, policies, and project procedures involves inherent time lags, meaning their effects will take time to materialize. As a result, HoREA forecasts that the market will only begin to show strong signs of recovery from the second half of 2026 onward.