Early 2025 rice exports see price drop, order slump concerns

Vietnam exported around 500,000 tons of rice in January, generating $308 million in revenue.

Although the export volume increased by 1% compared to the same period last year, the value decreased by 10.4%, according to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development.

Since the beginning of 2025, Vietnam’s rice export prices have fallen to the lowest levels globally, with a notable acceleration in the first 10 days of February.

The Vietnam Food Association (VFA) reported that the current export price for regular 5% broken rice is only $399 per ton, while 25% broken rice is priced at $371 per ton, and 100% broken rice at $313 per ton – the lowest prices in the past nine years.

"The average export price of rice in January 2025 was only $616 per ton, down from the average of $627 per ton in 2024," stated the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development.

The VFA expressed concern over the excessively low rice prices. From 2016 to 2022, the export price of Vietnamese 5% broken rice typically ranged between $420 and $535 per ton. However, in 2023, export prices surged due to India halting rice exports, pushing the price of Vietnamese 5% broken rice to a 15-year high of $663 per ton in November 2023. Currently, the export price of Vietnamese regular rice has decreased by $264, equivalent to 40%, compared to the end of 2023.

Despite the export price of ordinary rice falling below $400 per ton in January 2025, the average export price of rice for the month remained above $600 per ton, thanks to the strong performance of fragrant and specialty rice varieties whose prices have not decreased.

Mr. Phung Duc Tien, Deputy Minister of Agriculture and Rural Development, attributes the current drop in rice export prices to India's relaxation of export restrictions after two years of tightening. Additionally, the demand for rice imports from major markets like the Philippines and Indonesia is decreasing, as these countries have accumulated sufficient reserves in 2024 and are waiting for prices to drop further before re-importing.

"The current rice market difficulties are temporary and will recover soon. Rice prices are currently at their lowest, so importers are expected to increase purchases soon, leading to a rise in prices," said Mr. Tien.