HSBC raises Vietnam's 2024 GDP growth forecast to 7%

HSBC has raised the 2024 GDP growth forecast for Vietnam to 7% from 6.5% following the country’s strong performance in the third quarter in spite of the devastation left by typhoon Yagi.

In its latest update, HSBC said that Vietnam is clearly back as ASEAN's growth star. The Q3 growth came in at 7.4% year-on-year, beating HSBC and market expectations of 6.2% and 6.1%, respectively.

Earlier, on September 30, HSBC maintained its growth projection at 6.5% for both 2024 and 2025, despite temporary economic disruptions from super typhoon Yagi, the most powerful to hit the country in over three decades.

The outperformance continued to be led by manufacturing, which grew 11.4% year-on-year. This was corroborated by healthy trade data, with exports rising 15.3% year-on-year in Q3.

“Encouragingly, the trade recovery that was initially centered around electronics is showing signs of broadening out, with textiles and footwear exports rising 16.7% year-on-year,” the bank noted.

HSBC keeps its 2025 GDP growth forecast for Vietnam unchanged at 6.5%. 

Earlier, Singapore-headquartered United Overseas Bank (UOB) revised its projection for Vietnam's 2024 GDP growth to 6.4% from 5.9% after a "surprisingly strong" Q3 performance.

Meanwhile, the World Bank raised its 2024 GDP growth forecast for Vietnam to 6.1% from 5.5% released in April.