Economic growth solutions introduced

Dr. Dang Huy Dong, Former Deputy Minister of Planning and Investment

Achieving double-digit GDP growth in 2025 is entirely possible if we address the current challenges, correct existing inefficiencies, and capitalize on emerging opportunities. While there are still some limitations, Vietnam’s GDP has already grown by 7 per cent. With the right approach, we could see an additional 1-2 per cent growth. To reach double-digit growth, two key drivers must be leveraged: digital transformation and green transformation.

First, advancing science and technology is critical for both the digital and green transformations. Vietnam must prioritize using domestic technology products and create a robust market for local enterprises to thrive. Currently, some policies still favor G7 technologies, which puts Vietnam’s businesses at a disadvantage. Supporting the development of local technologies requires not only financial aid but also creating a market environment conducive to growth, strengthening control over counterfeit and substandard products, and protecting local businesses.

Green transformation is an essential requirement for Vietnam’s economic growth. The country exports billions of dollars in agricultural products every year, but businesses are increasingly facing stringent sustainability standards for exports, particularly regarding carbon credits.

Two years ago, carbon credit prices in the EU were €90 ($92) per ton. Now, on some free markets, they have risen to $150-160 per ton. While there are concerns that carbon credits may pose a challenge, they can also become a new growth driver if effectively managed. If implemented correctly, combining digital and green transformations could provide a strong boost, adding 1-2 per cent to GDP growth.

Second, economic management methods must undergo comprehensive reform to meet the demands of development. Vietnam’s current economic management is based on a centralized model. Over the decades, regulations have been adjusted to align with integration, contributing to significant economic achievements. However, maintaining the current approach will make it difficult to reach major goals in the future.

Third, there needs to be a shift towards results-oriented management, with procedures streamlined, as emphasized by Party General Secretary To Lam. Managing by results will simplify and speed up processes. Moreover, this approach also reduces administrative risks facing public servants.

Some projects take 5-7 years to gain approval, which hinders development efforts. It is therefore crucial to redesign the entire management system, optimize processes, and shorten approval times.

Leaders of the Hanoi People’s Committee asked me whether it is feasible to complete 200 km of urban metro lines in the city over the next ten years. I responded that it is absolutely achievable. We have the necessary funds, technology, and construction methods. While there may have been past challenges with mechanisms, the recent introduction of the Capital Law makes it possible. This serves as an example that we have all the resources needed, we just need to adjust our approach.

A shift in management practices will enable smoother operations and increase GDP growth by 1-2 per cent. Coupled with the opportunities from digital and green transformations, 10-11 per cent GDP growth is fully attainable. Furthermore, given that State resources and public investment are often underutilized, with 50–60 per cent of funds unspent each year, there is ample space for growth.

 

Dr. Nguyen Van Than, Member of the National Assembly’s Economic Committee, Chairman of the Vietnam Association of Small and Medium Enterprises (VINASME)

Held recently by Vietnam Economic Times / VnEconomy, the 17th Vietnam Economic Scenarios Forum: Spring Plenary Meeting 2025, chose a theme and focus for discussions of breakthrough solutions aimed at achieving high growth and sustainable development in the new era.

The forum captured a variety of concerns and reflections on Vietnam’s economy in 2025, along with the outlook for 2026-2030. More promisingly, it also put forward innovative ideas, ranging from regional economic development to investment in financial hubs, integrating carbon targets with technology, and linking digital transformation with green transformation. It also discussed strategies to attract both domestic and foreign investments in key sectors and the creation of favorable policies such as tax exemptions, streamlined visas, and free economic zones, and reallocating public investment funds to private enterprises.

Regarding economic growth targets for 2025 and the critical economic indicators for 2026-2030, some have expressed concern about feasibility, especially as the determination and specific actions needed to achieve these goals have not been clearly outlined. However, in my view, if we focus on doing what we haven’t done correctly, and if we’re already achieving more than 50 per cent of the target, reaching double-digit growth doesn’t appear too challenging.

Nevertheless, these concerns highlight the need for a deeper focus on analyzing the root causes of limitations and developing a detailed roadmap to ensure consensus and affirm the commitment to implementation. The solutions presented must be both feasible and of high quality, meeting the expectations of all stakeholders.

On behalf of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), I have called for a talent development fund, working with the government on executing development strategies without relying on “seed capital” from the State. Talent, in this case, should be understood to include both students and older individuals who wish to contribute. Businesses should not expect others to provide funding. Enterprises can only prove their worth through results. As Party General Secretary To Lam has stated, only results matter, and if we perform well, we will be acknowledged.

We believe that the passionate contributions, ideas, and breakthrough solutions presented at the forum will contribute to the collective effort to build and lead Vietnam confidently into the “New era - The era of the nation’s rise”, as General Secretary Lam has directed.

 

Associate Professor Nguyen Dinh Tho, Director of the Institute of Strategy and Policy on Natural Resources and Environment, Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment

Vietnam’s “green” economy currently accounts for only 2 per cent of its overall economy, while the remaining 98 per cent is still categorized as “brown”. Historically, global growth has been closely linked to urbanization and industrialization, which is why the drive for green growth must align with the global transition towards a net-zero economy.

In 2009, at the 15th Conference of the Parties (COP15) of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in Copenhagen, Denmark, the world committed to providing $100 billion in support for developing countries. This was reaffirmed during the Paris Agreement in 2015, with the expectation that this goal would be met by 2022. At the recent COP29, the global community further committed to providing $300 billion to developing nations, with the total amount set to reach $1.3 trillion by 2035.

However, Vietnam is still not sufficiently positioned to access this financial support, including green finance, green technology, and green capabilities, as outlined in the Paris Agreement. Due to a lack of these capabilities, Vietnam has not been able to fully utilize these financial and technological resources. To date, Vietnam has also not yet tapped into the $15.5 billion raised through the Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP).

Meanwhile, traditional growth drivers such as exports, investment, and consumption are being increasingly emphasized, which in turn leads to higher emissions and greater energy consumption. This presents a significant challenge to achieving double-digit growth.

I suggest a breakthrough approach: Vietnam takes inspiration from China’s experience with liberalization in Shenzhen in 1979. Without the necessary institutional reforms, infrastructure, capacity, and skilled workforce, economic transformation cannot occur. For this reason, I propose starting with Van Don, Bac Van Phong, and Phu Quoc in developing net-zero special economic zones that will drive both economic growth and green growth.

This approach would also facilitate the mobilization of climate finance through financial hubs. To make these financial hubs regional and international centers, we must liberalize capital accounts. Cities like Ho Chi Minh City and Da Nang are unable to liberalize capital accounts due to the associated economic risks. Thus, we must implement a groundbreaking approach, distinct from the traditional model, in order to achieve double-digit growth.

I hope the government quickly establishes special economic zones in the three localities, which would be comparable in size to Singapore and about two-thirds the size of Hong Kong (China). This represents a significant opportunity to attract foreign financial resources. Additionally, through carbon credits and biodiversity credits, Vietnam can further tap into financial resources.

A new financial model was introduced at COP29, focusing on BOT (build-operate-transfer) through carbon credits. Vietnam can leverage carbon credits to invest in green infrastructure, presenting a major opportunity for the country.

 

Mr. Nguyen Xuan Thanh, Lecturer at the Fulbright School of Public Policy and Management, Fulbright University Vietnam

To achieve high and sustainable growth over the long term, of 20 years and more, the driving force must come from the supply side of the economy, rather than from demand-side factors like consumption, short-term investments, and trade.

On the supply side, improvements in production capacity and efficiency, driven by productivity, are essential. One key driver of success for all countries that have escaped the middle-income trap has been improving the quality of their human resources. Without enhancing workforce quality, Vietnam cannot transition to a high-income country. Therefore, the breakthrough solution lies in improving human resource quality within the context of Vietnam’s reality.

However, there are two key challenges in training and developing a high-quality workforce.

First, training high-quality personnel cannot be done at a low cost. And second, no one wants to pay the high cost. For instance, developing the semiconductor industry requires training engineers in semiconductor design, which takes four years and costs at least VND50 million ($2,000). However, we can afford to pay only VND10 million ($400), so this is very difficult.

I propose a breakthrough solution: Vietnam should introduce specific programs that meet international standards. Training programs for each industry should be accredited and meet global quality standards. Both public and private universities in Vietnam will be supported, and students enrolled in these programs will receive scholarships.

For example, if the training cost is VND50 million ($2,000) and the student can only afford to pay VND10 million ($400), the scholarship should cover the remaining VND40 million ($1,600). The government will establish a scholarship fund, contributing part of the budget, with the remainder raised from businesses. The success of these programs will be measured by their international accreditation.

The Ministry of Education and Training should be responsible for researching and applying the highest international standards for each field. Universities will be in charge of organizing faculty, designing programs, and implementing training, with investments coming from the government, society, and businesses. This approach will alleviate the burden on implementing agencies, simplify policy design, and ensure the delivery of high-quality education. As a result, more talented individuals will emerge from these programs, attracting investment from businesses.

 

Mr. Dominic Scriven, Chairman of Dragon Capital

Achieving double-digit economic growth is an exciting challenge for entrepreneurs like us. While a 7 per cent growth rate is already demanding, aiming for 1.5-times that presents an even greater opportunity to push the boundaries and drive further progress.

There is a significant paradox in Vietnam’s capital market. The interest rate on government bonds is 1.8 per cent per annum, while businesses that want to raise funds through bond issuances must accept very high interest rates. Currently, corporate bond interest rates are no longer at 8 per cent per annum, but rather range from 9 to 12 per cent on average.

From this paradox, I have a few recommendations to create more balance in the market, such as involving insurance companies. The presence of institutional investors in the capital market is currently very small. Just imagine that life insurance companies in Vietnam have a substantial asset base of $20 billion, while each year we see an additional $5 billion from the savings of individuals. This is a huge amount of capital available from institutions, not to mention the new funds that could be raised by implementing regulations for voluntary supplementary pension funds. These are changes we could consider.

As for Vietnam’s fiscal policy, the country is in a very safe position with a strong budget and resilience against challenges. However, last year, total State budget revenue increased 18 per cent, which is a growth rate higher than income growth in the population. This raises the question: Is this increase too high? Does this growth rate impact the capacity of other sectors?

As for the public debt limit, set by the National Assembly at 65 per cent of GDP, the current debt is under 40 per cent of GDP, leaving room for Vietnam to use fiscal policy more flexibly, creatively, and innovatively.